But a study published in the British Medical Journal (18 June 2008) casts serious doubt on this estimate. The study sought to provide an accurate estimate of violent war deaths in 13 countries over 50 years, including Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Democratic Republic of Congo, Guatemala and Bosnia. For Sri Lanka, the study found that at least 215,000 people have been killed in connection with the North East conflict up until 2002.

Previous research were based on media reports or before-and-after census figures and have tended to severely underestimate war-related fatalities among both combatants and civilians. The authors argue that these so-called ‘passive’ reports are “typically the only ones available during ongoing conflicts, and represent the most commonly cited sources for government and other estimates of war casualties, as in the current war in Iraq.”

In their approach, the team used world health survey data collected in 2002 and 2003, mainly by the World Health Organisation. These surveys collect information from a single respondent for each household about sibling deaths, including whether a death was related to war.

Even the new figures may undercount the number of conflict fatalities, said Richard Garfield, a professor at Columbia University in New York. The estimate for Sri Lanka may actually be as high as 338,000 killed taking into account various factors that may have led to under-reporting.

Sources: Fifty years of violent war deaths from Vietnam to Bosnia: analysis of data from the world health survey programme, Ziad Obermeyer, Murray and Gakidou, published in the British Medical Journal, 19 June 2008; Global war toll tripled, Agence France Presse, 20 June 2008.